Greeley City Council wards would grow more segregated by race under new proposed boundaries
By Trenton Sperry
As city staff in Greeley work to balance council ward population numbers with massive anticipated growth in the western portion of the city over the next decade or more, new proposed boundaries for the four wards increasingly segregate whites and Latinos.
Under Greeley’s municipal code, the boundaries of city council wards can and must change as populations fluctuate so that no one ward has far more residents than any other. In fact, the city has previously worked to keep wards within 7% of each other with regard to population.
According to city documents, Greeley’s wards currently have a population variance of 6.3%.
The city’s ward boundaries were most recently changed in 2012. Following the 2020 U.S. Census, Greeley city staff are working to adjust council ward boundaries to force the wards back toward equal measure.
At issue is how aggressively to balance those differences. Wards I and II – which represent the northeastern and southeastern portions of the city, respectively – comprise 44.8% of the city’s residents at present. Those ward boundaries invariably must grow west, but doing so will further segregate the city’s white and Latino populations.
Wards I and II are currently 44% and 41% Hispanic residents, respectively. Wards III and IV, which represent the southwestern and northwestern regions of the city, are currently 73% and 70% non-Hispanic (largely white) residents, respectively.
Under “Scenario A” proposed by city staff, those percentages would change to 45% Hispanic in Ward I and maintain the 41% Hispanic level in Ward II. The non-Hispanic percentages in Wards III and IV, however, would increase to 75% and 72%, respectively.
This option makes all four wards very close in population size, but city staff warn that Wards III and IV are likely to grow at a much faster rate over the next decade. According to city documents, the city east of 35th Avenue is expected to gain 3,650 residents by “2030-plus,” based on an analysis of building permits and historic growth patterns; the area west of 35th Avenue is expected to gain 35,130 residents over the same timeframe. If that happens, another ward boundary adjustment would be expected in the next four to six years, according to city documents; municipal code forbids adjustments more than once every four years.
Under “Scenario B” proposed and endorsed by city staff, Wards I and II would have larger population numbers than Wards III and IV in the short-term. City staff argue that, because Greeley’s west side is expected to grow so rapidly over the next decade, this scenario likely would keep ward boundaries from needing to be adjusted again before the next U.S. Census.
However, under this scenario, the wards’ ethnicity figures would change dramatically in the short term. The percent of the population that is non-Hispanic in Ward III would increase by 10 percentage points to 83%, and the percent of the population that is non-Hispanic in Ward IV would increase by 6 percentage points to 76%.
Similarly, the percentage of the population that is Hispanic in Ward I would grow to 47%, an increase of 3 percentage points, but the percentage of the population that is Hispanic in Ward II would decline to 39%, a decrease of 2 percentage points.
Neither proposed scenario would move a sitting council member into a different ward. However, under Scenario B, three of Greeley’s seven current members of council would reside in Ward III — a ward that would be about 83% white in a city that is about 35% Hispanic.
During a city council work session Tuesday evening, council members appeared to endorse staff preparing an ordinance to implement the Scenario B boundaries. That ordinance would go through at least two votes before council, with at least one opportunity for public comment. The dates for those hearings are not yet known.
Ward I Councilman Tommy Butler said he knows it’s too late for this round of ward maneuvering, but he said he would like to see the next effort include input from citizens and perhaps a committee dedicated to that end similar to the state’s new independent redistricting commissions for legislative and congressional districts.
“I would support that effort,” said Mayor John Gates. “I’m sensitive to the gibberish that we’re engaged in gerrymandering. … If they want input, I’m all for it.”
Proposed Greeley City Council ward changes
Current boundaries
Ward I - 56% non-Hispanic, 44% Hispanic
Ward II - 59% non-Hispanic, 41% Hispanic
Ward III - 73% non-Hispanic, 27% Hispanic
Ward IV - 70% non-Hispanic, 30% Hispanic
Scenario A boundaries
Ward I - 55% non-Hispanic, 45% Hispanic
Ward II - 59% non-Hispanic, 41% Hispanic
Ward III - 75% non-Hispanic, 25% Hispanic
Ward IV - 72% non-Hispanic, 28% Hispanic
Scenario B boundaries*
Ward I - 53% non-Hispanic, 47% Hispanic
Ward II - 61% non-Hispanic, 39% Hispanic
Ward III - 83% non-Hispanic, 17% Hispanic
Ward IV - 76% non-Hispanic, 24% Hispanic
*Endorsed by Greeley city staff and given initial OK by council Tuesday
Source: City of Greeley