Northern Colorado hospitals prepare for a potentially ‘dire’ COVID-19 surge this winter, even as a vaccine is on the horizon

By Kelly Ragan

Banner Health’s Chief Clinical Officer said Wednesday that if cases continue to rise as they did in November, the situation will become “very dire,” even as Weld County refuses to enforce state orders on restrictions. 

“All of those comments and statistics that I’m sharing with you here today paint a grim picture,” said Marjorie Bessel at a virtual press conference Wednesday. 

In northern Colorado, which includes North Colorado Medical Center in Greeley, McKee Medical Center in Loveland and Banner Health Center in Fort Collins, has seen, during the month of November: 

• 97% increase in COVID hospitalizations 

• 60% increase in ICU bed occupancy

• 50% of the ICU is occupied by COVID patients, compared to 18% on Nov. 1

• 160% increase in ventilator use for COVID patients 

• 39% of all hospitalized patients in Banner’s northern Colorado market are COVID patients

During the press conference, the NoCo Optimist asked what Bessel would tell counties, such as Weld, that have so far refused to enforce public health orders. 

“We need to look to our scientists that reside in our public health departments to help guide us through the rest of this pandemic,” she said. “The fact-based approaches are what are going to help us get through this surge to help save lives, reduce the burden of illness, and not overload our health care system. When we do not follow those mitigation efforts, we risk not being able to have a health care system that is there to take care of the patients who will need us.” 

Bessel also said Banner is in favor of all mitigation efforts that help flatten the curve. That includes curfews – which have been activated in Tucson – stopping indoor dining and stopping group athletic activities.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, joined Gov. Jared Polis for a coronavirus update Tuesday. He warned about a December surge, especially in the coming weeks as folks travel for holiday gatherings. He and others have also said those who did travel for Thanksgiving should assume they have it and quarantine. 

One major concern as the winter months usher in a surge of cases is hospital staffing. Banner has worked to hire 1,500 more staff members and plans to recruit 900 more – most of which will be for the Arizona market. 

Bessel said Banner may consider putting corporate and clinical staff with hospital experience back into the hospital to help patients if they need more people. 

At a city council meeting Tuesday, Greeley’s Emergency Manager Dan Frazen said hospital data is still one of the most reliable metrics to use in measuring where we’re at with the pandemic. 

North Colorado Medical Center was up to 81 cases as of Tuesday, he said, while UCHealth Greeley was down two cases – but still at 19 patients. 

“That puts us higher than we were in April, unfortunately,” Frazen said. 

But there is some good news. 

Positivity rates in Greeley and Weld County are down slightly. 

Weld’s positivity rate was 15.05% as of Wednesday, according to county data. Frazen said Greeley’s positivity rate was 14.76%. 

To ramp up testing capacity, the City of Greeley now provides free COVID-19 testing at the Youth Sports Complex parking lot, 1850 65th Ave. 

Frazen said the testing is free and available without a doctor’s referral or even any form of identification. 

The test site is drive-thru only, however, so folks will need to have access to a car. 

For people who don’t have a car, free walk-up testing is available at a kiosk on the east side of Nottingham field on the University of Northern Colorado campus. 

For more information, go to https://greeleygov.com/covid-19. 

A vaccine is on the horizon

A vaccine could be available by mid-December. Granted, it won’t be widely available – but it’s a start. 

Healthcare workers and first responders will be prioritized, Bessel said. 

In an email obtained by the NoCo Optimist via the Colorado Open Records Act, Deputy Director of the Weld County Department of Public Health and Environment Mark Lawley explained some of the department’s preliminary vaccine plans. 

The health department, he wrote, has been approved by the state as a Phase 1 provider of the COVID vaccine. The vaccine, made by Pfizer, will require two doses – the second coming 21 days after the first. 

Healthcare workers, first responders, and high-risk people living in long-term care and nursing home facilities will get priority, Lawley wrote. 

As it stands, the state identified UCHealth Greeley as one of the main recipients of the vaccine during the limited Phase 1 roll out. 

“We anticipate UCHealth Greeley hospital will take the lead on the distribution of (the) vaccine to Phase 1 recipients with WCDPHE in a supportive role, if needed,” Lawley wrote.